# AIMS Bubble EA — Reversal vs Continuation Empirical Study

**Evaluation Period:** 2022.01.03 – 2026.09.30 (4.75 Years)<br />**Broker Environment:** Pepperstone Tick-Quality Data<br />**Trade Management Architecture:** Universal Model A (50% Realized Bank @ +1.0R, Midline Trailing, Structural Wick SL)<br />**Sample Size:** 32 Head-to-Head Comparative Backtests (16 Standardized Asset/Timeframe Setups)

***

## 1. Executive Summary: Which Mode Generates More Winners?[​](#1-executive-summary-which-mode-generates-more-winners "Direct link to 1. Executive Summary: Which Mode Generates More Winners?")

When evaluating whether the **AIMS Bubble EA** produces more winners from **Climax Exhaustion Reversals (`TradeMode = 0`)** or **Centre-Band Snap-Back Continuations (`TradeMode = 1`)**, the empirical data delivers an unequivocal verdict:

Core Empirical Finding

**Continuation trades create significantly more winners than Reversal trades.**

* **Total Winning Trades:** **629 winners** for Continuation vs **441 winners** for Reversal (**+42.6% edge**).
* **Average Setup Win Rate:** **56.24%** for Continuation vs **47.74%** for Reversal (**+8.50% edge**).
* **Head-to-Head Win Rate Dominance:** Continuation outperformed Reversal in win rate across **13 out of 16 tested configurations (81.3%)**.
* **Portfolio Consistency:** **12 out of 16 setups (75.0%)** were net profitable under Continuation, compared to **7 out of 16 (43.8%)** for Reversal.
* **Total Net Profit:** **+$6,041.62** for Continuation vs **+$4,887.12** for Reversal.

### Empirical Testing Protocol & Verification GuidanceUser Testing Standard

Published metrics reflect our institutional test suite across 2022–2026 (4.75 Years, 32 Head-to-Head Runs) on Pepperstone real tick data.

The metrics, equity curves, and profit factors published on this site represent **our internal historical research benchmarks**. Market conditions, execution latency, broker spread spreads, overnight swap rates, and slippage vary between individual brokerages.

We strongly encourage every trader to **take the provided parameter templates (.set presets)** and conduct your own rigorous local backtests and forward tests before allocating live capital to AIMS Bubble EA.

1

#### Load Tuned Set Files

Start with the tested `.set` preset files bundled with your product release package. These provide hardened baselines with optimized ATR multiples and entry thresholds.

2

#### Backtest on Your Broker

Execute your own historical runs in MetaTrader Strategy Tester using tick-quality historical data from your chosen broker to verify spread and slippage tolerance.

3

#### Forward-Test on Demo

Run the EA on a demo account across at least **20 to 50 live forward trades** (or 2 to 4 weeks). Observe order placement, partial closes, and trailing stops under real market dynamics.

**Educational & Software Research Notice:** Past simulated performance does not guarantee future market results. All trading involves substantial financial risk. Algorithms are designed as systematic execution tools, not automated profit guarantees.

***

## 2. Interactive Performance Scorecard[​](#2-interactive-performance-scorecard "Direct link to 2. Interactive Performance Scorecard")

### AIMS Bubble EA — Reversal vs Continuation Comparative Benchmark

Head-to-head empirical reality check across 16 standardized asset-timeframe configurations on Pepperstone real tick history (2022–2026)

Winning Trades (Continuation)

629 Wins

+188 more winning trades (+42.6% edge)

Mean Win Rate (Continuation)

56.24%

vs 47.74% for Reversal (+8.50% edge)

Matchup Win Dominance

13 / 16 (81.3%)

Continuation wins 13 out of 16 head-to-head setups

Profitable Baskets Rate

75.0% vs 43.8%

12 of 16 profitable setups vs 7 of 16 for Reversal

Cumulative Equity Growth

$



16,041.62+60.4%(



Sep '26



)

Mode 1: Snap-Back Continuation EnsembleMode 0: Climax Exhaustion Reversal Ensemble

| Instrument | Timeframe | Configuration / Mode     | Trades | Win Rate  | Net Return | Profit Factor | Max DD | Return / DD |
| ---------- | --------- | ------------------------ | ------ | --------- | ---------- | ------------- | ------ | ----------- |
| USDJPY     | **H1**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 48     | **66.7%** | +$1,569.83 | 2.64          | 3.99%  | **3.93**    |
| USDJPY     | **H1**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 36     | **25.0%** | -$1,566.25 | 0.39          | 19.28% | **-0.81**   |
| XAUUSD     | **H4**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 31     | **58.1%** | +$1,121.40 | 2.05          | 5.29%  | **2.12**    |
| XAUUSD     | **H4**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 34     | **38.2%** | -$369.90   | 0.79          | 8.66%  | **-0.43**   |
| XAUUSD     | **H1**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 51     | **66.7%** | +$947.21   | 1.67          | 4.39%  | **2.16**    |
| XAUUSD     | **H1**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 37     | **48.7%** | -$271.77   | 0.83          | 7.61%  | **-0.36**   |
| GER40      | **H1**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 149    | **52.4%** | +$1,716.72 | 1.32          | 12.85% | **1.34**    |
| GER40      | **H1**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 108    | **46.3%** | -$194.79   | 0.96          | 8.14%  | **-0.24**   |
| USDCAD     | **H1**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 48     | **60.4%** | +$567.12   | 1.42          | 5.20%  | **1.09**    |
| USDCAD     | **H1**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 25     | **52.0%** | -$68.43    | 0.95          | 7.64%  | **-0.09**   |
| NAS100     | **H4**    | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 27     | **63.0%** | +$413.27   | 1.61          | 3.08%  | **1.34**    |
| NAS100     | **H4**    | Reversal (Climax)        | 28     | **53.6%** | +$1,714.20 | 2.25          | 7.57%  | **2.26**    |
| GER40      | **M15**   | Reversal (Climax)        | 394    | **51.5%** | +$4,174.06 | 1.19          | 12.68% | **3.29**    |
| GER40      | **M15**   | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 494    | **50.2%** | -$1,333.23 | 0.94          | 31.92% | **-0.42**   |
| SpotBrent  | **M15**   | Reversal (Climax)        | 39     | **71.8%** | +$2,586.47 | 3.23          | 2.99%  | **8.65**    |
| SpotBrent  | **M15**   | Continuation (Snap-Back) | 26     | **34.6%** | -$645.64   | 0.54          | 10.26% | **-0.63**   |

***

## 3. Macro Aggregate Comparison[​](#3-macro-aggregate-comparison "Direct link to 3. Macro Aggregate Comparison")

| Metric                           | Mode 0: Reversal (Climax Exhaustion) | Mode 1: Continuation (Snap-Back Pullback) | Advantage / Winner                   |
| -------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ |
| **Total Trades Executed**        | 899                                  | 1,176                                     | Continuation (+30.8% volume)         |
| **Total Winning Trades**         | **441**                              | **629**                                   | **Continuation (+188 winners)**      |
| **Total Losing Trades**          | 458                                  | 547                                       | Reversal (lower trade count)         |
| **Weighted Win Rate**            | 49.05%                               | **53.49%**                                | **Continuation (+4.44%)**            |
| **Mean Setup Win Rate**          | 47.74%                               | **56.24%**                                | **Continuation (+8.50%)**            |
| **Total Net Profit**             | $4,887.12                            | **$6,041.62**                             | **Continuation (+$1,154.50)**        |
| **Combined Profit Factor**       | 1.10                                 | **1.14**                                  | **Continuation**                     |
| **Profitable Configurations**    | 7 / 16 (43.8%)                       | **12 / 16 (75.0%)**                       | **Continuation (+31.2%)**            |
| **Average Max Drawdown**         | 8.30%                                | **7.98%**                                 | **Continuation (smoother curve)**    |
| **Head-to-Head Win Rate Wins**   | 3 matchups                           | **13 matchups**                           | **Continuation (13 to 3 dominance)** |
| **Head-to-Head Net Profit Wins** | 5 matchups                           | **11 matchups**                           | **Continuation (11 to 5 dominance)** |

***

## 4. Why Does Continuation Create More Winners?[​](#4-why-does-continuation-create-more-winners "Direct link to 4. Why Does Continuation Create More Winners?")



### 1. Alignment with Primary Drift (Trend Bias)[​](#1-alignment-with-primary-drift-trend-bias "Direct link to 1. Alignment with Primary Drift (Trend Bias)")

In `Mode 1` (Continuation), the EA identifies that a strong expansion has occurred, but **refuses to fight it**. Instead, it waits for price to return to the 20 EMA centre band and buys or sells the discount pullback in alignment with the dominant institutional drift.

### 2. Elimination of the "Riding the Band" Trap[​](#2-elimination-of-the-riding-the-band-trap "Direct link to 2. Elimination of the \"Riding the Band\" Trap")

During powerful macroeconomic moves (such as the multi-year USDJPY dollar rally or Gold bull runs), price can peg against the outer containment band for 5 to 15 successive candles. Reversal attempts (`Mode 0`) get stopped out repeatedly before the eventual climax forms, resulting in heavy drawdowns.

### 3. Lower Equity Curve Volatility[​](#3-lower-equity-curve-volatility "Direct link to 3. Lower Equity Curve Volatility")

Continuation setups produced lower average maximum drawdowns (**7.98% vs 8.30%**) and maintained a smooth, linear equity trajectory across the 4.75-year backtest horizon.

***

## 5. Asset Class Dissection[​](#5-asset-class-dissection "Direct link to 5. Asset Class Dissection")

### A. Forex Markets: Continuation is Essential[​](#a-forex-markets-continuation-is-essential "Direct link to A. Forex Markets: Continuation is Essential")

* **Continuation Average Win Rate:** **59.25%** | **Net Profit:** **+$1,871.23** (PF 1.28)
* **Reversal Average Win Rate:** **46.04%** | **Net Profit:** **-$2,478.60** (PF 0.74)

Forex Counter-Trend Danger

Currency pairs undergo persistent macro trends driven by interest rate differentials. Fading strong expansions on Forex without macro trend filtering produced severe drawdowns:

* **USDJPY H1:** Reversal suffered a **25.0% Win Rate** (-$1,566.25, 19.3% DD). Continuation achieved **66.67% Win Rate** (+ $1,569.83, PF 2.64, 3.99% DD).

### B. Commodities: Gold Trend Reloads[​](#b-commodities-gold-trend-reloads "Direct link to B. Commodities: Gold Trend Reloads")

* **Continuation Average Win Rate:** **53.55%** | **Net Profit:** **+$1,760.48** (PF 1.35)
* **Reversal Average Win Rate:** **47.36%** | **Net Profit:** **+$959.21** (PF 1.15)
* On `XAUUSD` H4 and H1, Continuation delivered **+$2,068.61** combined profit (58.1% and 66.7% win rates), whereas fading Gold generated -$641.67 in losses.

### C. Equity Indices: High-Yield Intraday Reversals[​](#c-equity-indices-high-yield-intraday-reversals "Direct link to C. Equity Indices: High-Yield Intraday Reversals")

* **Continuation Average Win Rate:** **54.91%** | **Net Profit:** **+$2,309.91** (PF 1.07)
* **Reversal Average Win Rate:** **49.87%** | **Net Profit:** **+$6,406.51** (PF 1.20)
* While Continuation maintained higher win rates on swing horizons (NAS100 H4: 63.0% vs 53.6%), Reversals generated extraordinary asymmetric gains on fast intraday charts (GER40 M15: **+$4,174.06**, SpotBrent M15: **+$2,586.47**). Blow-off exhaustion climaxes snap back rapidly with very large R-multiples.

***

## 6. Actionable Deployment Matrix for `TradeMode`[​](#6-actionable-deployment-matrix-for-trademode "Direct link to 6-actionable-deployment-matrix-for-trademode")

| Market Category                                       | Recommended `TradeMode`     | Tactical Rationale                                                                 |
| ----------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **All Forex Pairs (H1, H4)**                          | `Mode 1: Continuation Only` | Eliminates trend-riding traps; delivers consistent 59%+ win rate.                  |
| **Gold & Commodities (H1, H4)**                       | `Mode 1: Continuation Only` | Captures trend reloads (66.7% WR on XAUUSD H1).                                    |
| **Intraday Volatile Indices (M15 GER40 / SpotBrent)** | `Mode 0: Reversal Only`     | Capitalizes on fast liquidity sweeps and exhaustion climaxes.                      |
| **Macro Tech Swing (NAS100 H4)**                      | `Mode 2: Dual (Both Modes)` | Dual participation captures both high win rate pullbacks and huge reversal swings. |